Secularisation Theory Will Modern Society Reject Religion? What is Secularism?

1. What do Secular, Secularisation, and Secularisation Theory Mean?

“...the ongoing, growing, and powerful movement called secularism, a way of understanding and living that is indifferent to religion -- in fact, not even concerned enough to pay it any attention, much less oppose it.”

National Council of Churches₁

Secular means without religion. Non-religious people lead secular lives. Secular government runs along rational and humanistic lines. This is the norm in democratic countries. The individuals that make up the government are rightly free to have whatever religion they want, as are the populace. Because of this freedom, in a multicultural world, there is a requirement for governments not to cause resentment or divisions by identifying itself with a particular religion. The most well-known phrase proposing secular democracy as an ideal is Jefferson's "wall of separation between church and state" [paraphrased].
Secularism, promoted by secularists, is the belief that religion should be a private, personal, voluntary affair that does not impose upon other people. Public spaces and officialdom should therefore be religion-neutral. Secularism ensures that religions are treated fairly and that no bias exists for a particular religion, and also that non-religious folk such as Humanists are treated with equal respect. It is the only democratic way to proceed in a globalized world where populations are free to choose their own, varied, religions. ⇒ See Secularism.
Secularisation is the process of things becoming more secular. Most of the Western world has seen this paradigm come to dominate politics and civil life, starting from the time of the Enlightenment. For example in 1864 the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) published a document as a hostile response to fledging secularisation, as growing tolerance for other religions and the growing power of democracy was challenging the RCC's power to implement its doctrine in the countries of Europe₂. Thus as the world develops morally and tolerance and public equality come to the fore, religion, because it causes issues, retreats from the public sphere as people prefer to meet on neutral terms, in peace.
Secularisation Theory is the theory in sociology that as society advances in modernity, religion retreats. Intellectual and scientific developments have undermined the spiritual, supernatural, superstitious and paranormal ideas on which religion relies for its legitimacy. Therefore, religion becomes more and more "hollow", surviving for a while on empty until loss of active membership forces them into obscurity. The evidences and shortcomings of this theory are discussed later in this text.
Some take the process of secularisation as a personal affront, and think that mere lack of bias from government implies an active attack. They see any reduction in (their own) public religion to be bad, and apparently they do not understand the causes or reasons behind the secularisation of officialdom. Hopefully this page will address this.

2. The Defiers of Secularisation

The world is not secularising evenly. Some of the exceptions (even in the developed world) are so pronounced that some question the entire Secularisation Theory; some (erroneously) believe it is only a European phenomenon₃. We will respond to these arguments below, for example Steve Bruce points out Japan as an example of a non-Christian, non-European country that has also secularized extensively.

• The USA still has a very high religiosity rate, as high as third-world countries, and is, with the possible exception of parts of Scandinavia the most advanced country in the world. So this is a serious exception that needs explaining. Most explanations have concentrated on the high level of immigration, something which tends to harden people's religions. See: What Causes Religion and Superstitions?: 2.4. Identity Reinforcement
• The developing world is highly religious; there are countries and cultures that can hardly imagine what life without religion is like. Critics imagine that these countries will not lose their religious beliefs as they develop higher rates of education and technological development.
• Sections of society within secular countries remain highly religious. The middle-ground believers are now swayed into areligiosity by the same inertia that used to lead them into religion. Now these are largely gone, what is left behind are the hardcore believers, who are both more vocal, more educated and more activist about their beliefs. These fanatical groups show no signs of dissipation. A report in The Economist (2007) reads: "It is the tougher versions of religion that are doing best - the sort that claim Adam and Eve met 6,003 years ago. Some of the new converts are from the ranks of the underprivileged (Pentecostalism has spread rapidly in the fevelas of Brazil), but many are not. American evangelicals tend to be well-educated and well-off"₄.
• The growth of New Religious Movements in secularized countries makes some doubt the depth of secularisation₅. However, the numbers involved in NRMs are small in comparison to the numbers lost by world religions in the developed world, and their middling increase in numbers is simply part of the decentralisation process of religions₆. It is just that the NRMs are often newsworthy, hence, have a higher profile.₇
• Some Muslim countries are modernizing without secularizing. In contrast, some of these states are seeing dwindling minority religions and increasing power of Islamic institutions₈. Yet, the type of science accepted is often engineering and branches of science that lack teleological and theological implications. Evolution is, for example, still comprehensively rejected in all gulf states₉. So we are not seeing a true adoption of modernism in these countries, just an uptake of pragmatism.
• "Formerly communist countries are also getting hooked again on the opium of the people. Russia's secret police, the KGB, hounded religion: its successor, the FSB, has its own Orthodox church opposite its headquarters"₄. Communism was once a heavy factor in the de-religionizing of large areas of the world.

3. Which are the Least Religious Countries?₁₀

Disbelief In God
1	Vietnam	81%
2	Japan	65%
3	Sweden	64%
4	Czech Rep.	61%
5	Estonia	49%
6	Denmark	48%
7	France	44%
8	Belgium	43%
9	Netherlands	42%
10	Germany	42%
11	UK	42%
12	Cuba	40%
13	Slovenia	35%
14	Bulgaria	34%
15	Hungary	32%
16	Norway	31%
17	Korea, S.	30%
18	Finland	28%
19	Russia	27%
20	Australia	25%
Data Source

How Religious?
1	Estonia	16%
2	Sweden	17%
3	Denmark	19%
4	Hong Kong	24%
5	Japan	24%
6	UK	27%
7	France	30%
8	Vietnam	30%
9	Belarus	34%
10	Russia	34%
11	Albania	39%
12	Latvia	39%
13	Luxembourg	39%
14	Hungary	39%
15	Germany	40%
16	Switzerland	41%
17	Uruguay	41%
18	Lithuania	42%
19	Canada	42%
20	Kazakhstan	43%
Data Source

“Atheists (those who do not believe in any god), and humanists (those who embrace a morality that does not appeal to any supernatural source), and others who consider themselves non-religious, are a large and growing population across the world. A detailed survey in 2012 revealed that religious people make up 59% of the world population, while those who identify as "atheist" make up 13%, and an additional 23% identify as "not religious" (while not self-identifying as "atheist"). The report by the Gallup International Association (available at http://www.wingia.com/web/files/news/14/file/14.pdf) is in line with other recent global surveys. It shows that atheism and the non religious population are growing rapidly - religion dropped by 9% and atheism rose by 3% between 2005 and 2012 - and that religion declines in proportion to the rise in education and personal income, which is a trend that looks set to continue.”

"Freedom of Thought" by IHEU (2012)₁₁

3.1. Religion in Europe

Over the last 60 years, religion in Europe has seen a strong decline. On average throughout the 27 EU countries, only half of its people believe in God₁₂ and 25.4% directly say that they have no religion₁₃. There is much variation from country to country. Only 16% of the populace of Estonia believe in God and the Scandinavian countries are highly atheist. But 95% believe in Malta. Two main social groups are particularly prone to belief in God; those over 55 years old and those whose education did not proceed beyond the 15-year-old stage.₁₂. For a discussion on secularisation in general, see: "Secularisation Theory: Will Modern Society Reject Religion? What is Secularism?" by Vexen Crabtree
Despite the low rate of belief in God, many Europeans still claim to belong to theistic religions. 49.5% of the population of Europe say they are Catholic Christian, 15.7% say they're Muslim, 12.7% say they're Protestant Christian, 8.6% say they're Orthodox Christian and 0.4% say they are Jewish₁₃. These numbers mean that at least 30% of Europeans are putting down a religion despite not believing in the very basic first principal of the religion they put down. This is because most people in Europe confuse religion and cultural heritage. For a discussion of this, see: "Institutionalized Religions Have Their Numbers Inflated by National Polls" by Vexen Crabtree.
See: Religion in Europe.

3.2. Secularisation in the non-Western World

Some say that secularisation is limited to highly Protestant countries where individual choices came to be viewed as more important than communal worship. They make Europe out to be an "exceptional case"; however, there is growing evidence of secularisation in most parts of the world, and some countries such as Japan are even less religious that some European countries. In his survey of the research done into clergy and other castes of religious professionals, sociologist Dean R. Hoge reports that in Western nations in general (not just in Europe) the status of Christian clergy has been declining for 300 years both amongst Protestants and Catholics, as religious professionals are suffering from a gradual loss of perceived authority₁₄. Hoge also notes that across Asia, Buddhist priests are also losing their authority₁₅.
South America: Although it is easy to assume, if you will, that some of the areas where religion is rapidly expanding are areas where secularisation theory is being challenged, there are hints that suggest otherwise. The ballooning success of evangelical Protestantism in South America is one such area; Pentecostalism has had a massive and rapid success there. Yet sociologists, in conducting systematic surveys, have found that beneath the surface the increase in religiosity is unstable. A 1989 survey in Costa Rica found that 8.1% of the population who had once been Protestant had now moved on: 31% of them had stopped professing religion at all. And "in 1990, in Chile, only 48 per cent of a sample of self-identified Evangelicals (predominantly Pentecostals) attended church weekly and 38 per cent very seldom or never attended"₁₆.
India: Signs of early secularization amongst India's Hindus includes the growth of informal 'do it yourself' omnipraxy and that religious icons are being produced increasingly unreligiously, whereas previous their production involved personal and ritualistic involvement₁₇. Secularism and materialism are here seen hand in hand.
In Islamic Morocco, and Indonesia: The studies of sociologist Clifford Geertz led him to declare that in these countries, people are finding it harder and harder to employ religious symbols as representing "the deepest grain of reality"₁₈. Richard Fenn comments that "Clearly Geertz fears that Indonesia shares the fate of a Western Christianity emptied of its monopoly of the sacred and he shows that religion in Indonesia is moving in the same direction"₁₉.
Japan is the example given by Steve Bruce (1996) as the prime non-Western country that is deep in the throes of secularisation₂₀.

4. Secularisation Theory

Secularisation theory explains that as modern society advances it will become increasingly secular, and religion will become increasingly hollow. Since the rise of science in the 17th Century, sociological commentators have realised that religion may be in a permanent decline, and some have proposed the science and intelligence, both rooted in the Enlightenment, are anathema to religious faith. Karl Marx (1818-1883), Durkheim (1857-1917), Max Weber (1864-1920), the founders of sociology, and William James (lectures from 1901-1902) are four eminent men who all noted this decline. My page Religion in the United Kingdom: Diversity, Trends and Decline page show examples and charts of what this long-term decline looks like, in terms of memberships, attendance and beliefs, etc.

“The three 'classical' sociological theorists, Marx, Durkheim and Weber [all] thought that the significance of religion would decrease in modern times. Each believed that religion is in a fundamental sense an illusion. The advocates of different faiths may be wholly persuaded of the validity of the beliefs they hold and the rituals in which they participate, yet the very diversity of religions and their obvious connections to different types of society, the three thinkers held, make these claims inherently implausible.”

"Sociology" by Anthony Giddens (1997)₂₁

“There is a notion in the air about us that religion is probably only an anachronism, a case of "survival," an atavistic relapse into a mode of thought which humanity in its more enlightened examples has outgrown; and this notion our religious anthropologists at present do little to counteract. This view is so widespread at the present day that I must consider it with some explicitness before I pass to my own conclusions.”

"The Varieties of Religious Experience" by William James (1902) [Book Review]₂₂

One modern oft-quoted definition of secularisation by Bryan Wilson (1982) is “that process by which religious institutions, actions, and consciousness, lose their social significance”₂₃, which is quite wide and includes most theories as to why religion is declining, but, specifically ties the description to social ( - public) significance. Whereas other sociologists such as Steve Bruce have collected data that proves that private religion is also declining₂₄. Another definition by William Sims Bainbridge goes too far in stating that "secularization theory, which in its simplest form holds that social and intellectual progress is rendering religion obsolete"₂₅. Few are far between are the brave anthropologists or sociologists who theorize religion will become obsolete! Roger Finke (1997) gives secularisation theory a more useful definition that doesn't concentrate on just social effects: “religion will decline as modernity erodes the demand for traditional religious beliefs”₂₆. Here the word "traditional" takes into account the fact that it seems that new-age, individualistic and self-help religions are rising in popularity - although this rise is nowhere near enough to curb the overall downward trend in religious involvement.
Moojan Momen (1999) says there are five ways of looking at secularisation:

1. "Decline of popular involvement in institutionalized religion. This can be seen in the decline in church attendance, with fewer marriages, baptisms and funerals being performed under religious auspices."
2. "The loss of prestige of religious institutions and symbols" and the decline in influence of religious organisations.
3. "The separation of society from the religious world, so that religion becomes purely personal matter."
4. The loss of the idea of the sacred. "As science increases our understanding of humanity and of the world, the area of 'mystery' and the supernatural decrease."
5. "Religious groups themselves become increasingly concerned with the things of this world rather than the spiritual world."

Point one is comprehensively illustrated on my page on statistics of religion in Britain. Point five is clearly illustrated by the reaction of modern religionists to secular advance: fundamentalists are much more engaged in the processes of politics than any other religious group in the West. Momen also notes that in Europe, secularisation came to the fore in the nineteenth century:

“Secularization has gradually permeated the Christian world. It led to the situation in which, by the nineteenth century, Christianity had ceased to have much real influence on the social and political life of Europe. The form was maintained, in that political leaders usually made a great show attending religious ceremonies and were often personally pious. Religion no longer had a role, however, in the shaping of political and social policy. Other considerations and other secular ideologies had taken over. Following the loss of social and political influence, religion became increasingly irrelevant to the lives of ordinary people also.”

"The Phenomenon Of Religion: A Thematic Approach" by Moojan Momen (1999) [Book Review]₂₇

Another sociologist of religion, in his survey of new religious movements, reported similar findings in modern countries and gives a partial explanation as to why this is occurring:

“Looking back over the past couple of centuries it would seem to be overwhelmingly evident that religious beliefs, practices and symbols are gradually being abandoned at all levels of modern society. [...] Central to this apparent decline of religion is religious pluralism. Communities in which people shared the same religious beliefs and morality [...] are rapidly disappearing. [...] In modern societies there are few shared values to which one can appeal. Believers are constantly aware that their faith is chosen from a spectrum of beliefs on offer. Consequently, beliefs that were once taken for granted as exclusively and absolutely true seem increasingly implausible.”

"Encyclopedia of New Religions" by Christopher Partridge (2004)₂₈

4.1. The Causes of Secularisation

"Anti-Religious Forces: Specific Factors Fuelling Secularisation" by Vexen Crabtree (2011) is my comprehensive analysis of the historical and modern forces at work behind secularisation. Its menu is:

1. Introduction
2. Anti-Religious Forces of the Present
   1. Modernism and Compartmentalism
   2. Individualism (Religion is Private, not Public)
   3. Multiculturalism
   4. Science
   5. Intelligence
   6. Human Rights
   7. The Internet
3. Anti-Religious Forces of History
   1. The Ancient Greeks
   2. Communism
   3. Christian Intolerance for Magic and Gods
4. People of Historical Importance
   1. Those Who Became Historical Movements: Nietzsche, Weber, Freud and Marx
   2. Outstanding Critics of Religion in the Modern Era
5. Blows to Religion According to Moojan Momen

4.2. The Dalai Lama Defends Secularism as a Way to Respect All Religion

The Dalai Lama proved himself to have a good understanding of what secularism is when he defended it, in 2006, as a route to respect all religions through its doctrines of non-interference and non-promotion of any particular religions:

“DALAI LAMA SAYS SECULARISM IS THE TRUE ROUTE TO HAPPINESS
The Dalai Lama has come out in defence of secularism. Speaking in Tokyo, the Tibetan spiritual figurehead said: "Secularism does not mean rejection of all religions. It means respect for all religions and human beings including non-believers. I am talking to you not as a Tibetan or a Buddhist but as a human being having a friendly discussion and sharing my experiences on the benefits of cultivating basic human values."
In a lecture on "A Good Heart - The key to Health and Happiness" the Dalai Lama emphasises that cultivating secular ethics - which he said has nothing to do with religion - benefits all human beings. He said strengthening inner values of warm-heartedness and compassion benefits both believers and non-believers in leading a happy and meaningful life. He said, "Love and compassion attracts, hatred and anger repels. [...] Peace does not mean absence of conflicts. Differences will always be there. Peace means solving these differences through peaceful means; through dialogue, education, knowledge; through humane ways," the Dalai Lama said amidst a thunderous applause.
Terry Sanderson, vice president of the National Secular Society, said: "It is not often that we can raise a cheer for a religious leader, but the Dalai Lama is sensible to say that a universal ethic is better than one based on religion. Secularism asks us to keep our religion to ourselves, which enables us as human beings to share what unites us rather than what divides us."”

National Secular Society, National Secular Society (2006)₂₉

4.3. S. Bruce Defends Secularisation Theory (1996)

Steve Bruce (1996)₂₄ looks at the major comments made by those who do not believe that increasing secularisation is causing a decline in religious belief. "Despite the fuss made by a few sociologists keen to challenge the secularisation thesis, that consensus is very clear: our medieval past was considerably more religious than our modern present.". He looks at the assertion that although modern Church membership is plummeting "religious belief" is still just as strong and refutes it by showing the relevant stats, sociology and history.
The "trend is clear. Those marks of an enduring interest in religion that persist outside the churches are themselves becoming weaker and more rare. If one wants to call those residues 'implicit religion', then one has to recognize that the implicit is decaying in the same way as the explicit. It is not a compensating alternative".
He continues: "Secondly, it should be no surprise that, though there are more avowed atheists than there were twenty years ago, they remain rare. Self-conscious atheism and agnosticism are features of religious cultures and were at their height in the Victorian era. They are postures adopted in a world where people are keenly interested in religion".

5. SeculariSation, or SeculariZation?

In English, we can use either -ise or -ize. Although in American secularization is exclusively spelt with a 'z', in English we use both.

“The -ize spelling is called Oxford Spelling and is used extensively by Oxford University Press and the OED. Cambridge University Press, quite predictably, have the opposite stance and consider -ise to be the norm. Historically, English has seen both variants used in abundance. Neither one is more correct or more modern.
Because the Americans have limited themselves to the -ize spelling, for whatever reason, many in the rest of the English-speaking world have reacted by calling it "the American spelling" and therefore limited themselves to the -ise spelling. This is pointless sectarian reactionism and people should be corrected when they call z-spelling "AmericaniZation"! It is not.”

"The Vexen Crabtree Disclaimer: 13. -isation and ise, versus ization and ize" by Vexen Crabtree (1999)

Bryan Wilson (British, the intellectual father of secularisation theory) used the -z spelling throughout his "Religion in Secular Society" (1966) and other writings. Although his obituary in The Guardian (2004 Nov 02) consistently spelt it secularisation with an s. So, the choice is yours!

6. Civil 'Religion' and Secularisation

Civil religion describes a form of religious nationalism; sometimes it is clearly designed in order to control the people, but sometimes it is a genuine development amongst the citizenry. It is often described in terms other than religion, but, many sociologists have noted the similarity to religion, both in terms of ritual and behaviour, and expressed emotions and justification for its existence. In his mystical concentration on the concept of the 'sacred', Richard K. Fenn explains in his chapter on Catherine Bell that as organized religion disappears, civil practices become even freer to develop:

“The more that religion is unable to control the sacred, the more the sacred may thrive in a wide range of ritualized forms and activities. Bell (1997: 201) is very clear that ritualized forms of the sacred may flourish in a society that is secular, in the sense that the sacred is no longer dominated, defined, or integrated by any particular set of religious beliefs or practices. 'The more widely shared rituals will be only vaguely religious, giving rise to a vast body of 'civic' rituals that include pledging, allegiance to the flag... [...] this type of secular society is also likely to emphasize moral-ethical commands over religious duties, even within the different religious subgroups, in part because moral-ethical injunctions are sufficiently abstract, universal ...' ”

"Key Thinkers in the Sociology of Religion"
Richard K. Fenn (2009) [Book Review]₃₀

Most activist secular groups tend to emerge from anti-religious groups, which creates a skewed battlefield where it appears that secularists oppose religion in general, when this isn't necessarily the case (the Dalai Lama (see above) is a case in point). Hopefully, secularisation can be seen as the only way to guarantee religious freedom in a world where competing religions would otherwise lay claim to the State's education systems, etc, and inhibit freedom. A secular world guarantees maximum religious freedom, free of public religious coercion.